Why Aurora’s Growth Into the U.S. Market Actually Isn’t All That Interesting

Investors are more bullish than they need to be.

David Jagielski

In recent weeks, Aurora Marijuana ( NYSE: ACB) stock has seen brand-new life. It all started with the company releasing its third-quarter 2020 results on May 14, which revealed 18%revenue growth from the previous duration. A dedication to more improving its expenses likewise gave financiers a reason to be enthusiastic that profitability might not be simply a pipe dream.

Then, on May 20, the marijuana manufacturer also revealed it was acquiring Reliva, a cannabidiol (CBD) brand that would enable it to penetrate the U.S. market. As interesting a chance as that might seem at first glance, here’s why financiers shouldn’t put excessive stock in it.

It’s getting in an already crowded hemp market

Numerous headings promote Aurora’s current acquisition as the company entering the U.S. CBD market. While it’s technically true, it is worthy of an asterisk at the very least. All forms of CBD aren’t legal in the U.S. (federally), and Aurora can’t offer non-hemp items that contain more than 0.3%of tetrahydrocannabinol (THC). U.S. cannabis business that don’t operate nationally and rather run within states that allow medical or leisure pot aren’t limited to those restrictions. And until the U.S. federal government legislates medical or recreational marijuana, it’s a limitation Canadian cannabis business will face.

A cannabis plant in an indoor grow facility

Image source: Getty Images.

The good news is that according to research companies BDS Analytics and Arcview Market Research, the overall CBD market in the U.S. is still anticipated to reach $20 billion by 2024, up from simply $1.9 billion in2018 The forecast didn’t break out the split between hemp and non-hemp items. And the problem is that the rosy outlook for CBD does not mean the chance is going to translate into substantial growth for Aurora.

That’s due to the fact that Aurora will not just be contending with other U.S. companies for market share, but with Canadian pot stocks that are likewise looking to take advantage of the chances in the hemp market.

Julie Lerner, who is CEO of the PanXchange where hemp is traded, validated in January that there was much more supply than demand for hemp. That’s not going to bode well for a company like Aurora, which is attempting to enhance on its margins and get closer to success.

Having access to thousands of locations doesn’t ensure development

In the news release revealing the acquisition of Reliva, there wasn’t a great deal of information on how huge of a player the company is in the hemp market. Although Aurora described Reliva as “a leader in the sale of hemp-derived CBD products in the United States,” there wasn’t anything to measure or justify that other than to say that its products were offered in more than 20,000 U.S. areas. According to analysts, Reliva’s sales over a 12- month duration ending in February amounted to $14 million in profits.

Hemp-derived CBD company Charlotte’s Web ( OTC: CWBHF), offers its products in less areas, and it has far more powerful sales.

A year back, the business tape-recorded sales of $217 million when its products were in more than 6,000 areas. The boost in locations over the past year hasn’t resulted in a rise in sales for Charlotte’s Web, and Aurora investors should not make the mistake of presuming more places suggest greater earnings.

The move doesn’t make Aurora a much better buy

Aurora anticipates Reliva to assist the Alberta-based pot producer inch closer to attaining a favorable adjusted revenues prior to income, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) figure. The acquisition may help play a small part in improving Aurora’s bottom line, however the company still has a lot of work to do in improving its financials.

The only certainty, it appears, is that the offer will result in more dilution for investors. The business anticipate the deal will close in June, and it will cost Aurora as much as $45 million in shares.

The acquisition is a modest one for Aurora that will assist contribute to its leading line, but that’s about it; Aurora stays a dangerous buy, and one quarter and one acquisition isn’t going to change that. The pot stock is still down more than 80%over the past 12 months, significantly even worse than the Horizons Cannabis Life Sciences ETF ( OTC: HMLSF), which has actually fallen by 60%.

David Jagielski has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Charlottes Web Holdings. The Motley Fool recommends Charlotte’s Web. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.”> David Jagielski has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of and advises Charlottes Web Holdings. The Motley Fool suggests Charlotte’s Web. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy“>


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